The southern San Juan Mountains, particularly around Wolf Creek Pass, are grappling with intensifying drought conditions as the 2025 water year unfolds. This region, known for its heavy snowfall, is experiencing one of its driest seasons in decades, raising concerns about water resources, wildfire risks, and ecological impacts.
Alarming Snowpack Declines
Historically, Wolf Creek Pass boasts some of Colorado’s highest snow totals. However, this year, the snowpack has been significantly below average. By early May, parts of Wolf Creek Pass were snow-free, melting nearly 3–4 weeks earlier than usual. The SNOTEL station at Wolf Creek Pass recorded near-record low snow water equivalent (SWE) totals for this time of year.
The Upper San Juan SNOTEL station, located near the pass, reported the second-lowest peak SWE since its establishment in 1979, surpassing even the severe drought year of 2018. This early melt-out aligns with a 40-year trend in Colorado’s southern mountains, where snowpack is declining, and peaks are occurring earlier.
Impacts on Water Supply and Ecosystems
The rapid snowmelt and diminished snowpack have led to reduced streamflows in the region. The Upper Rio Grande Basin is reporting 12% of median SWE and is on track to melt 3–4 weeks early. Many stations in northern New Mexico that typically have reliable mid-winter snowpack have lost all snow 3–4 weeks early.
Lake Powell, a critical reservoir downstream, is expected to see less than 70% of its average inflow this year, exacerbating water scarcity in the broader Colorado River Basin.
Heightened Wildfire Risks
The combination of early snowmelt, dry soils, and above-normal temperatures has heightened wildfire risks in the region. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s outlook favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across most of the West, including southern Colorado. These conditions are conducive to an early start to the fire season.
Looking Ahead
The outlook for the coming months remains concerning. The seasonal drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors drought development or expansion across the southern Rockies, including southern Colorado. Persistent dry conditions coupled with early snowmelt have reduced water supply forecasts, and drought is expected to persist across these areas.
Note: This blog post is based on data and reports available as of early June 2025. For the most current information, please refer to local weather and water resource agencies.
